An Obama Presidency? :: Herbert I. London

Based on everything we now know, what would America look like four years from now if Barack Obama were elected president in 2008? Based on campaign rhetoric, there are clues:

Regarding race, taxes and health care, I anticipate the following. Race as a campaign issue will be permanently inserted into history's trash heap where it belongs. In that sense, there will be justifiable rejoicing over what will be described as a new chapter in the national story. In order to deal with the deficit, Obama will raise taxes — a conventional Democratic response to revenue shortfall. He will also propose to Congress the Universal Health Care program based on the proposition that everyone in the nation must be covered by health insurance. The government will insure those who are not insured for whatever reason.

More worrisome is the little we know about his foreign policy objectives: a timetable for withdrawal of American forces from Iraq and direct negotiations with Iranian leaders over nuclear weapons.

If the Obama campaign is to be believed, troop drawndown would be completed within 18 months with the likelihood President Obama will establish a timetable for Iraqi withdrawal sometime after assuming office. This year and half period would be a time for the Shia militias, Iran and al Qaeda to reinforce their troops on the ground and plan a strategy for filling the military void left by the precipitous American troop withdrawal. This action will most likely embolden the extremists who will describe America's departure from the battlefield as an ignominious defeat that affirms the rise and traction of radical Islam. It will also send a message to moderate nations in the Middle East neighborhood, namely Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, that they had better make a deal with Iran, the acknowledged hegeman in the region, or face a military challenge.

Mr. Obama has also indicated that he would engage in direct negotiations with Ahmadinejad about nuclear weapons and Iran's regional role. In fact, he noted these negotiations should occur without preconditions — an unprecedented development.

The question, of course, is what can President Obama say? Is he prepared to accept Iran as the area's most influential player with nuclear weapons? Can he offer blandishments that persuade Iran to forego the nuclear option? If he is not persuasive, what precisely would he be prepared to do? These questions suggest that negotiations between leaders without preconditions are unprecedented for a good reason: they cannot work and could put protagonists in a position where compromise is impossible. Needless to say, time is on the side of the party being asked to make concessions.

An Obama presidency based on campaign promises will be obliged to: raise taxes across the board, make commitments for universal health care that will put enormous pressure on the budget, orchestrate a rapid troop withdrawal from Iraq which emboldens our enemies and invites further divisions in this beleaguered nation and negotiate directly with Iran which most probably results in a Persian empire with nuclear weapons.

While I'm persuaded the conditions I've outlined are plausible, I pray they don't occur.

However, this thought exercise should be entertained for those who oppose and support him. The times in which we live and the election before us demand nothing less.

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